The future of the mobile phone business

One of the fastest growing technologies of our times is that of mobile phones. In this article we use the assumption that the diffusion of mobile technology, as measured by the number of active mobile accounts, follows the well known S-curve of natural growth in competition systems. The accuracy of the logistic fit is tested against actual data for the whole world, Europe, China and the GSM system. Using the produced models predictions concerning the future of mobile business are deliberated.According to these models active mobile accounts around the globe are expected to grow from 1.7 billion in 2004 to approximately 2 billion in 2008, reaching a peak penetration of 29.2%. Growth barriers, apart from the age of the potential user, are also low income and extreme poverty. Europe, early adopter of mobile technology and leader in active mobile accounts against all other regions in the world, has apparently reached a peak with almost every European, apart from the very young or very old, using a mobile phone. The mobile market in China is anticipated to exceed 500 million active accounts and may increase even further depending on the economic and social reform that is currently under way in that part of the world. GSM will most likely remain the leading mobile technology in the future as it is today.The growth process for the world, Europe, and the GSM system is almost completed and during this stage instabilities may occur before the potential emergence of a new wave of growth.     

The linkage between the US and Korean stock markets: the case of NASDAQ, KOSDAQ, and the semiconductor stocks

This paper examines the interrelationship between stock prices in the US and Korea by applying the vector autoregression (VAR) model to the daily stock prices at three different level of aggregation – the national aggregate index level, the high-tech industry level and the semiconductor firm level – for the period of July 1996 through February 2001. The major findings of this study are as follows. First, the US stock market plays a leading role over the Korean market at every level of aggregation. The reverse direction of influence, from Korea to the US, was found to be minimal. Second, the evidence also suggests that the speed of transmission of innovation from the US to Korea is swift and finished for the most part within a 24-h period, although it takes three or four days to complete the whole process. Third, the influence of the US stock prices on Korean stock prices, which is measured by the innovation transmission using the impulse–response function (IRF) analysis, seems to be somewhat stronger in the composite national stock price indices and the tech-laden indices than high-tech firms. Fourth, at the firm level, the influence of Micron Technology on the leading semiconductor manufacturers in Korea is shown to be strong and persistent by passing about 34 percent of its innovations to the Korean firms within the three-day period. The impact of IBM and Intel on the Korean chip makers seems to be relatively smaller. Finally, stock prices in Korea, national stock price indices and individual high-tech stocks alike, have become much more responsive to innovations in the US stock prices after the 1997 financial crisis. The implications of the main findings in this paper are also discussed.     

王国维之死的哲学意蕴——兼论叔本华死亡观对王国维的影响

王国维是中国近现代学术史上的巨灵。他的成功，不仅在于他在高层次的起点上确立了宏丽的学术思想，而且在其学术思想里面，涵蕴着一种“死亡意识”，尤以他的《人间词话》为甚。天才者，痛苦是也，惟其痛苦，名乃副实。此实与彼“死亡意识”契合，得以使死亡上升至形而上的哲学之维。显然，王氏的“死亡意识”受到了叔本华死亡哲学的影响，尽管这种影响是非常的微不足道，以至常常被人们所忽视。     

后危机时代国际银行业发展趋势研究——兼评2009年1000家大银行排行榜

本文结合2009年1000家大银行排行榜的新特征,分析全球银行业格局的变化。结论认为,金融危机对未来全球银行业的经营环境产生了巨大的影响,美欧银行业将很难再现过去10年的辉煌,部分坚持传统稳健经营模式的发达国家银行可望取得良好发展,新兴市场银行仍将是发展亮点和全球银行业角逐之地。     

文化营销:打造上海世博会的全球品牌

以“城市，让生活更美好”为主题的2010年世博会是上海实现科学发展的重要契机，是上海构建和谐社会的重要举措，也是上海今后一个时期发展的重要推动力。为了打遣上海世博会的全球品牌，以独特思想＋道德伦理＋价值观念＋人际关系＋精神财富＋相应的组织行为构成的文化营销成为世博营销的关键。通过对上海世博会文化营销进行全面的SWOT分析，从而提出2010年上海世博会文化营销的具体策略，即多元文化的融合是基础，传统文化的现代化是重点，绿色和科技营销是辅翼。     

世界100强企业的业务组合

研究业务组合与企业经济绩效的关系,目的在于揭示业务组合类型对企业成长的作用,为企业界选择发展方式提供指导。世界100强企业成功的业务组合与经营绩效关系,对正在以更快步伐加入国际竞争的中国企业,具有重要的借鉴意义。本文对1997～2006年期间世界100强企业的业务组合类型及经营绩效间关系进行了实证分析,发现采取单一业务型和相关业务型业务组合的企业所占比重均有大幅下降,采取主导一体化、主导业务型和非相关业务型业务组合的企业所占比重均有不同程度的增加。不同业务组合类型企业的获利能力、运营能力和偿债能力均具有显著差异。     

Impacts of WTO restrictions on subsidized EU sugar exports

The study evaluates the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) restrictions on the European Union (EU) sugar sector and the world sugar market. A small reduction in production quotas would be sufficient to satisfy the export subsidy limitations of the Uruguay Round agreement. Complete elimination of export subsidies by 2005 would require either a 10% reduction in production quotas or the combination of an 8% reduction in quotas and an 11% reduction in intervention prices. Higher world prices resulting from reduced EU exports would result in increased production of unsubsidized C‐sugar, with different impacts across EU member countries explained by differences in institutional pricing arrangements and marginal production costs.     

保障措施存在的合理性及其在全球贸易中的应用

在全球关税和非关税壁垒大幅降低的情况下,保障措施已成为进口国保护弱势产业的一种新的合法有效方式。通过对保障措施存在的合理性以及实施保障措施的条件进行剖析,分析了WTO成立后,保障措施在全球贸易中的应用状况及国外对中国产品实施保障措施的情况,认为保障措施是一把双刃剑,进口国在决定是否实施时,应综合多方面的情况,权衡利弊得失。     

Country terms of trade: trends,unit roots,over-differencing,endogeneity, time dummies,and heterogeneity

The debate about the Prebisch-Singer thesis has focused on primary commodities with some extensions to manufactures. We analyse trends in country terms-of-trade for goods and services rather than those for commodities according to the World Bank income classification. We find that the natural logarithm of the terms of trade for all groups except for the poorest has common unit roots, but none has individual unit roots. As low-income countries have no unit roots over-differencing is inefficient and biases significance levels in first differences against the fall in the terms of trade. For the low-income countries the terms of trade of goods and services are falling at a rate that is significantly negative without and with endogeneity treatment by system GMM. A comprehensive analysis of the effects of time dummies supports the result of falling terms of trade for low-income countries. When all coefficients are country-specific 50% of all low-income countries have falling terms of trade in a simultaneous equation estimation using the SUR method. Food and financial crisis have no effect on the number of countries with falling terms of trade, but (dis-)improve the terms of trade or the significance of the results for a very small number of countries.     

外国游客参观2010 年上海世博会的满意度研究 ——基于Travel Blog 日志的探讨

本文基于旅游者的博文资料,运用内容分析法和重要性—表现分析法(IPA),初步研究了外国游客对2010年上海世博会的满意度问题。研究发现,外国游客对上海世博会的满意度主要取决于城市环境、世博会参观质量和游客自身状况3个维度,具体包括"产品"、"游览环境"、"管理水平"、"其他游客"、"价格"、"形象"、"游客自身状况"、"外部环境因素"、"配套服务"和"工作人员"等10个概念类属;外国游客对2010年上海世博会的总体满意度为6.15,属于基本满意水平。基于IPA分析的结果得出,展出内容的质量、游览环境、工作人员培训以及游客行为等因素是大型活动现场管理的重点。